Currently, our channel is updating our daily predicting results that contain two major aspects: win probability and spread.
The win probability shows how likely a team will lose or win. The spread shows how our model measures the difference in the strengths of two teams. Let’s take the first game of this season as an example to give you a better idea about our predicting results.
New York Knicks (away) vs Boston Celtics (home)
win probability: 21.4% (away) vs 78.6% (home)
spread: New York Knicks + 8.1 (underdog)
The away and home inside the parentheses refers to if a team will be playing at their own arena. In the second row, we use away and home to refer to the two teams since it’s shorter and also easy to understand.
The spread is a number that can be positive or negative. In this example, our model believes that the New York Knicks need an extra 8.1 points at the beginning of the game so that they can get the same points as the Boston Celtics at the end of the game. Of course in reality this will never happen because all games start from 0 : 0, not spread : 0. But this is an easy way to understand the concept of spread.
Now if you want to bet on this game. You can simply bet the Boston Celtics will win. If you want to bet on spread, which can possibly bring you more wining, first you need to read and understand bookmakers’ spread. For example, from oddsshark we can see that their spread is +6 for Knicks. But our spread is +8.1, which means NYK still need an extra 2.1 points beside the six points to be in par with Celtics. So which team should you bet on? You should bet on the team that is more likely to cover. And because through our model’s calculation, each team can win 50% of the time if the game starts with 8.1 : 0 for NYK and BOS. But their spread is 6, so NYK is more likely to lose with this spread. So you should bet on BOS to win despite the spread.
If you still have difficulty understanding what I just talked about or want to cooperate, please contact us through email: believers666@proton.me